Saturday racing, including Cheltenham!

12:35 Punchestown – Ben Dundee 2/1 – 1pt win – I think this will be between this Gelding and Joseph O’Brien’s ‘Tower Bridge’. I’m sticking to my heart and going with the Elliot runner who has faced the larger obstacles already and can use that to his advantage. He was 3rd on debut at Down Royal But half a length split the top 3. His stable companion Delta Work eventually got on top but if Ben Dundee can match that here he should win. This race is over the same distance and conditions look suitable. Big chance?

 

2:45 Lingfield – Addeybb 6/4 – 1pt win – I wouldn’t be surprised if this four year olds odds are shortened up by race time. He has only raced 4 times this calendar year, one of which was an impressive group 2 victory at Sandown. Is he rated 10lb better than his nearest rival, so I don’t see the penalty he carries being too much of a hinderence and id hope he will still have too much for these. The major question mark would be over this been his first run on the all weather but hopefully that is fine. Haggas has 68 winners from 214 runners (31.78%) he has sent round here in the past 5 years and operates at a +40.89 P/L for all his horses around here in that time period. Huge chance!

 

3:40 Uttoxeter – North Star Oscar 11/2 – 1pt win – It’s hard to evaluate just how good this horse will be but it seems connections are fairly keen. He has attracted a little bit of market support after I originally got 6/1 before writing this. He is well bred and Warren Greatrex has won this twice in the last three remewals of the race. In the past 5 years Greatrex has actually won with 10 of 17 entries in bumpers here which equates to an incredible 58.82% and a P/L of +21.13 in that time. They usually go well for him around here and judged on those stats you’d hope he has another good chance here.

 

4:00 Cheltenham – Royal Illusion 6/4 – 1pt win –  Mullins in a Bumper, need I say anymore? She is two from two, running away with the most recent of those runs at Cork. She won that race 13 days ago by just as many lengths, 14 to be exact. When she was asked a couple of questions she looked very smart on debut too and I think it’ll take a pretty handy performance to have her beaten here. The main rival for me would be Nicholls Mare’. A trainer who is seems to be going close in every Bumper about at the moment! Mullins has only sent one horse over for the entire meeting, and I doubt it’s just for the day out.

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