11:45 Lingfield – Contrive 7/2 – 1pt win – Prior to odds coming out, I had this race between this Filly, and that of Saeed Bin Suroor’s and that’s how the market has panned out. Varians Filly, Contrive won last time out and has been hit with a 3lb rise in the weights which is fair. Prior to that she was 2nd in a competitive class 2 handicap at HQ where she went down by a nose to Pattie, a Filly who since went on to boost that form placing in a French Listed Race and then another listed race at Kempton. That form looks solid and she should go close.
12:55 Ascot – Cresswell Legend 3/1 -1pt win – This Gelding has been 2nd on both starts over fences, both against subsequent winners who boosted that form. The first of those races, his chase debut was when finishing just a head behind Gordon Elliot’s Cubomania who has won 7 races in 2018 and looks very progressive for a top trainer. Conditions looks suitable and connections will be hopeful?
1:50 Haydock – Black Mischief 11/2 – 1pt win – Harry Fry does well around here, and the horse ended last term with a win. He was travelling strongly last time out when falling at the last at Market Rasen. The 2lb increase in weights is fine, and had he won it could have been a 6lb increase. Has the champion jockey booked and you’d hope he can go well!
2:40 Ascot – If The Cap Fits 1/1 – 3pt win – NAP- This one I’m very confident with even with the bad run I’ve had. Old Guard is entitled to respect, but the market probably correctly shows it may be between this Gelding and We Have A Dream. Although the latter probably has more scope for improvement and is much the younger, it was only 14 days ago when If The Cap Fits finished 5 lengths infront of Henderson’s mount, and he looked to be drawing further clear. They step up in trip a further 3 furlongs and judged by how that race was ran it could help if The Cap Fits’ cause, besides a 5l gap is a lot to overturn off the same weight. I think he may go off favourite today, and this price may not last, although of course that’s hard to be sure.
5:15 Wolves – Fantasy Justifier 7/1 – 0.5pt ew – Ronald Harris horse here was 4th just 4 days ago over course and distance over the same mark. He comes here today which a better draw, and the obvious reason that he stands a better chance under Oisin Murphy than he did with David Probert. Good chance at nice odds if turning out quickly!